Poker Hand Analysis

Poker under a Microscope

Success in poker is a journey, not a destination. Yes, there may be a time when a player thinks he or she has “arrived.” A win in a tournament or a trip home with a few hundred dollars from a cash game might make the player feel the trip is over and it’s all gravy from that point on. But the truth is, all players should continue analyzing the game from inside. This includes looking at some of the crucial hands played personally or hands as detailed by others.

Every book, DVD, Web site and poker “boot camp” includes detailed descriptions of individual hands, many with crisp graphics of cards that make up the hands of two or more players. Knowing the hole cards is, of course, only the beginning of the story. There are 169 starting-hand combinations. Few of them are good enough to warrant staying in to see the flop.

Poker Hand Analysis: An Example

Let’s take a look at one possible situation and see how it might play out. Suppose you have a 10 of hearts and a 9 of clubs. First of all, let’s acknowledge that you don’t have two cards of the same suit. The chances of getting a flush are rather slim. (If you have 10-9 of the same suit there is another door open to you.) However, you do have what is called “connectors.” This gives you the possibility of making a straight with several three-card combinations. But there’s more!

One of the basic truths of poker is that you can only make a straight when you have a 5 or a 10 somewhere in the mix. In our example, you have a 10 in your hand and a connected card. To get a straight, one of the stronger hands in poker, you’ll have to build the hand with the other connecting cards.

Tip: Even with a fair starting hand like 10-9 you shouldn’t get caught up “chasing” a straight.

Suppose the flop comes out 7, 4, Jack. You have what is called an “inside” straight draw – 7, * 9, 10, Jack. The “8” is missing. Traditional wisdom states that you shouldn’t draw to an inside straight. There are a few other elements involved of course. Your decision should be made based on who the other players are, how many other players stay in the hand, how much it will cost to stay in the hand. If there are no other possibilities, such as a flush, the best chance you have for a strong hand lies with one of four “8s.” That means there are four cards that will “make” your hand.

You can only see your two hole cards and the three cards on the flop. Subtract those five cards from the 52 in the deck and you have 47 cards left to come. (You can’t count the hole cards of the other players – you don’t know what they are either!) Four of the 47 cards (the 8s) will make your straight; 43 cards won’t. The odds are more than 10 to 1 against making that straight on the turn. Use that in figuring your cost of staying in the hand.